{"id":31391,"date":"2024-10-28T16:48:40","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T11:48:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/?p=31391"},"modified":"2024-10-28T16:49:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-28T11:49:00","slug":"ozbekistonda-tugilish-nega-yildan-yilga-kamaymoqda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/?p=31391","title":{"rendered":"O\u2018zbekistonda tug\u2018ilish nega yildan yilga kamaymoqda?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yil boshidan buyon qariyb 694 ming ta tug\u2018ilish qayd etilgan bo\u2018lib, o\u2018tgan yilning mos davriga nistan 3,2 foizga pasaygan. Ushbu holatga iqtisodchi Mirkomil Xolboyev o\u2018zining fikrini bildirib o\u2018tdi.<\/p>\n<p>Unga ko\u2018ra, yaqin tariximizda 2016 hamda 2017 yillarda ham tug\u2018ilish mos ravishda 1,3 foizga va 1,4 foizga pasaygan edi. Bundan tashqari, 2011 (-1 foiz), 2010 (-3,3 foiz), 2005 (-1,3 foiz) hamda 2003 (-4,6 foiz) yillarda ham tug\u2018ilishning pasayishi <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/Mirkonomika\/2049\">qayd etilgan<\/a>. Mustaqillikdan yangi asrgacha bo\u2018lgan iqtisodiy qiyinchilik va tiklanish davrida esa tug\u2018ilishning pasayishi odatiy holga aylanib qolgan. 1992-2000 yillarda faqatgina 1995 yilda tug\u2018ilish 3,2 % o\u2018sgan bo\u2018lsa qolgan barcha yillarda tug\u2018ilishning chuqur pasayishi kuzatilgan.<\/p>\n<p>Xo\u2018sh, joriy yilda kuzatilayotgan pasayish yaqin tariximizdagi kuzatilgani kabi bir yillik pasayishmi yoki uzoq davom etuvchi demografik muammolarning boshlanishimi?. Bu savolga aniq javob topish qiyin. lekin menimcha hozirgi pasayish chuqur muammolarni ifoda etmaydi. Hozirgi pasayishni asosiy sababi esa 1992-2001 yillardagi tug\u2018ilishning pasayishi hisoblanadi. O\u2018sha yillarda tug\u2018ilishlar soni qariyb 30 foizga pasaygan. Masalan, Mustaqillikning ilk yillarda 700 mingdan ko\u2018proq bola tug\u2018ilgan bo\u2018lsa, yangi asrga kelib bu ko\u2018rsatkich 500 minggacha pasaygan.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cHozirga kelib mustaqillikning ilk davrida tug\u2018ilgan insonlar farzand ko\u2018rish davridan o\u2018tmoqda va ayni chuqur pasayish davrida tug\u2018ilganlar mamlakatdagi tug\u2018ilishlar sonida asosiy rol o\u2018ynay boshlagan. Bu esa tabiiy ravishda tug\u2018ilishning kamayishiga olib kelayotgan bo\u2018lishi mumkin. Masalan, hozirgi tug\u2018ilish darajasi va 27 yil oldingi (erkaklar uchun o\u2018rtacha turmush ko\u2018rish yoshi) tug\u2018ilish darajasi o\u2018rtasidagi bog\u2018liqlik (korrelatsiya) 0,46 foiz atrofida. Bu hozirgi tug\u2018ilishlar soni 27 yil oldingi tug\u2018ilishlar soniga sezilarli darajada bog\u2018liqligini ko\u2018rsatadi\u201d, deydi iqtisodchi.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bu tendensiyani so\u2018ngi yillarda nikohlar sonining pasayish tendensiyasidan ham ko\u2018rish mumkin. Xususan, nikohlar soni 2024 yil 9 oyda 2,8 foizga, 2023 yilda 4,3 foizga hamda 2022 yilda 2,8 foizga pasaygan. Bu holat birinchidan nikoh yoshining biroz ko\u2018tarilayotganligi bilan izohlansa, ikkinchidan, Mustaqillikdan yangi asrgacha bo\u2018lgan davrda tug\u2018ilishlar sonining doimiy pasayish tendensiyasi ta\u2019siri ko\u2018rina boshlaganligi bilan izohlanishi mumkin.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cShuningdek, aholi orasida nisbatan kamroq farzand ko\u2018rish haqidagi qarorlari ham hozirgi pasayishga ta\u2019sir qilayotgan bo\u2018lishi mumkin. Lekin har bir onaga tug\u2018ish darajasi (fertility rate) so\u2018nggi yillarda o\u2018sish tendensiyasini namoyon qilmoqda. Xususan, bu ko\u2018rsatkich 2017 yilda 2,4 ni tashkil etgan bo\u2018lsa, 2022 yilga kelib 3,3 ga yetgan. Ya\u2019ni odamlar ko\u2018proq farzand ko\u2018rishga qaror qilishmoqda. Umuman olganda, joriy yilda tug\u2018ilish bilan kuzatilayotgan tendensiya ko\u2018proq tug\u2018ish yoshidagi insonlar sonining oldingi avlodga nisbatan kamligi bilan izohlansa kerak. Boshqacha aytganda, joriy yildagi pasayish chuqur demografik muammolar yuzaga kelayotganligini ko\u2018rsatmaydi, balki &#8220;mavsumiylikka&#8221; xos xususiyatga ega, xolos\u201d, deb yozadi Mirkomil Xolboyev o\u2018z sahifasida.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Eslatib o\u2018tamiz, 2024-yilning dastlabki to\u2018qqiz oyi yakunlariga ko\u2018ra, O\u2018zbekistonda tug\u2018ilish darajasi 3,2% ga qisqargan bo\u2018lib, jami 693 897 nafar yangi tug\u2018ilganlar ro\u2018yxatga olingan. Nikohlanishlar soni 179,4 minggacha qisqarib, 2016-yildan beri eng past ko\u2018rsatkichni <a href=\"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/?p=31375\">qayd etdi<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mutaxassisning fikricha, tug\u2018ilish bilan kuzatilayotgan tendensiya ko\u2018proq tug\u2018ish yoshidagi insonlar sonining oldingi avlodga nisbatan kamligi bilan izohlanishi mumkin. Joriy yildagi pasayish chuqur demografik muammolar yuzaga kelayotganligini ko\u2018rsatmaydi, balki \u201cmavsumiylikka\u201d xos xususiyatga ega. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":31392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_sharing_image":{"poster":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/671f79fbf1ca6.jpg","width":1200,"height":630,"template":"26a28dfa","mode":"manual"},"_sharing_image_fieldset":{"xk6e44ialdzo":31392,"7B0ecgVieEAP":"O\u2018zbekistonda tug\u2018ilish nega yildan yilga kamaymoqda?","bhdaZLZhGCGO":0,"hVLxQSJ3U60d":"","CwvlvHGkzug0":"O\u2018zbekistonda tug\u2018ilish nega yildan yilga kamaymoqda?","IWBN3mDsETuD":"Mutaxassisning fikricha, tug\u2018ilish bilan kuzatilayotgan tendensiya ko\u2018proq tug\u2018ish yoshidagi insonlar sonining oldingi avlodga nisbatan kamligi bilan izohlanishi mumkin. Joriy yildagi pasayish chuqur demografik muammolar yuzaga kelayotganligini ko\u2018rsatmaydi, balki \"mavsumiylikka\" xos xususiyatga ega."},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"ptype":[30],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31391"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31391"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31391\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31395,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31391\/revisions\/31395"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/31392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31391"},{"taxonomy":"ptype","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kommers.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fptype&post=31391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}